Superhero fatigue may be real, but it isn’t slowing down Peter Parker.
“Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” Sony’s and Marvel Studios’ fourth solo outing for Tom Holland’s web-slinger, is tracking for a three-day domestic opening that could rank among the largest in box office history, even as several other comic-book releases have struggled at the box office this year.
Projections have varied sharply in the run-up to release. Deadline’s tracking, the most conservative among major trade outlets, put the opening at $180 million to $190 million, while Box Office Pro forecast $230 million to $250 million. Box Office Theory cast the widest range, estimating anywhere from $228 million to $274 million before settling on roughly $249 million. Sony’s own public estimate is more conservative, at $190 million to $195 million. Several independent trackers project an opening above $230 million, with some forecasting roughly $250 million or more.
If even the most conservative tracking holds, “Brand New Day” would still stand as the biggest domestic opening projected for 2026 so far, ahead of Disney/Pixar’s “Toy Story 5,” which opened to $159.7 million. The film’s two trailers have already set viewership records, with the first drawing more than 700 million views within 24 hours, surpassing the mark previously held by “Deadpool & Wolverine.”
The film is landing without IMAX screens, which remain committed to Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” under a three-week exclusive booking, though “Brand New Day” will still play premium large-format and Dolby theaters. That scheduling quirk could make for a record-setting collective weekend at the domestic box office, with “The Odyssey” projected by box-office analysts to add another $50 million to $60 million in its third frame.
“Brand New Day” picks up after 2021’s “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” which ended with Doctor Strange erasing the world’s memory of Peter Parker’s secret identity — including that of his girlfriend, MJ (Zendaya), and best friend, Ned (Jacob Batalon). That film went on to gross nearly $2 billion worldwide, and demand for its follow-up has been strong enough that some theaters are scheduling showtimes as frequently as every 15 minutes on opening weekend, according to Variety.
“Superhero fatigue is real, but Spider-Man fatigue is not,” Jeff Bock, an analyst at Exhibitor Relations, told the outlet, adding that the character remains the first big superhero film of the summer.
Mr. Bock argued that overexposure has hurt other corners of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, pointing to what he calls “consequence fatigue” — a byproduct of a franchise where deaths and entire universes can be reversed. He credited Spider-Man’s staying power to Sony’s handling of the character’s dual identity as both superhero and ordinary person.
Spider-Man has now appeared in nine standalone live-action films over 24 years, following turns by Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield before Mr. Holland. “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” director Destin Daniel Cretton takes over behind the camera for “Brand New Day,” succeeding Jon Watts, who directed Mr. Holland’s first three installments.
David A. Gross, who runs the consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research, said the character’s simplicity is central to its box office durability.
“It’s a winning formula, every time,” Mr. Gross told Variety, describing Spider-Man’s origin story as archetypal.
“Brand New Day” arrives a few months ahead of Marvel’s ensemble sequel “Avengers: Doomsday,” which opens Dec. 18 and could rival it for the year’s biggest release. Beyond 2026, Marvel has “Avengers: Secret Wars” set for 2027 and “Black Panther 3” for 2028, along with a “Ghost Rider” reboot starring Ryan Gosling and an untitled “X-Men” film in development, as the studio has signaled a shift toward fewer, higher-quality releases after years of churning out as many as four films annually.
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