Just how much trouble does James Talarico face in deep-red Texas while attempting to end a Democrat family feud? It depends on who you ask, but the real answer may be revealed in what Democrats will attempt to spend.
The media keeps insisting that Talarico has the best shot at winning a statewide race in Texas than any Democrat since Ann Richards. That was the party line from the New York Times four weeks ago, which put the Senate race at a dead heat at 47 percent in its Siena poll. Another poll analysis yesterday from KLST in San Antonio suggested that nothing had changed for Democrats, in that black voters align with Talarico at the same rate as they did for Colin Allred and Beto O’Rourke, roughly 80/13 in the Siena poll.
That’s damning with faint praise, however. O’Rourke lost two statewide elections in Texas, one against a weak incumbent in 2018 (Ted Cruz) in a cycle with a moderately significant blue wave. Six years later, Allred lost by nearly ten points against Cruz. And the real problem, KLST admitted in their analysis, is that black voters may not turn out as well as they did for Allred and O’Rourke.
Why? We’ll get to that in a moment. However, as CBS News reported, Talarico now wants to spend a fortune in cash just to get black turnout to the Allred level:
James Talarico forced admit he has a black voter problem and is now planning on spending $25m in black outreach. pic.twitter.com/2O27xEEZ1D
— Luke Macias (@lukemaciastx) July 27, 2026
Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico made headlines last week after he made a $25 million pledge to increase outreach to Black Texans and maximize their turnout in the all-important midterm election.
He explained to reporters what that pledge would look like.
“You’re going to see paid advertisements directed toward black voters. You’re going to see organizing, folks showing up at doorsteps, folks showing up at community events, registering voters, speaking to voters, listening to voters,” he said.
His announcement came after complaints and criticism from some in the Black community that Talarico wasn’t working hard enough to earn their votes.
Oh, come come. That isn’t the complaint from “some in the black community” about Talarico, at least not the real complaint. The real complaint is that Talarico challenged Jasmine Crockett in the primary to begin with, and then had the temerity to actually win the nomination. And that matters to this pledge to spend $25 million to win their votes, because the solution Talarico plans to fund won’t address the real conflict. The real conflict here is Talarico himself.
Black voters are still angry over Talarico’s decision to run against Jasmine Crockett in the primary. As I have written before, Talarico violated the intersectional hierarchy of progressive politics by challenging a black woman as a white man. It doesn’t matter, in that sense anyway, how much money Talarico spends on outreach to black voters. As he himself says, he’s already been spending that money without much to show for it:
“We’ve been convening Black business leaders, Black faith leaders, Black elected officials all over this state, in the biggest areas and in the smaller towns,” added Talarico. “I’ve been visiting Black-owned businesses and Black churches all over Texas. I’ve been appearing on Black media here in DFW, Houston, and national Black media, and holding these town hall discussions, including in Houston on Sunday and in DeSoto yesterday. We are polling better with Black Texans than any Democrat in modern Texas history, and so we need to continue that process.”
He’s polling about where Allred and O’Rourke polled, and for the same general reason: party affiliation. The issue isn’t nominal support, however; it’s turnout. Enthusiasm for Talarico has yet to show up in polling – in fact, Talarico himself has yet to show up in polls, as pollsters seem to be largely avoiding the Texas general election. However, one can look at the string of skeptical-to-hostile receptions Talarico has received on his $25 million tour to grasp that he’s no Beto, and may not even be a Colin. And one large reason for that is Jasmine Crockett’s own tour over the last several weeks, where she has argued to these same communities that Talarico’s victory came as a result of, and is largely proof of, Democrat Party racism.
As long as Crockett amplifies that message, Talarico can spend $100 million. It won’t change anything. And if Talarico gets too focused on black voters, Hispanic voters will start feeling ignored and overlooked. And they are twice as large a demographic in Texas. Intersectionality is a real wench, if you know what I mean.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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