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Schrödinger’s Negotiations; Iran Says Talks Suspended, But Others Say They Will Continue – HotAir

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June 21, 2026
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Trump's Kinda Ticked Off as War Rages in Lebanon – HotAir

The Iranians say they have walked out of the negotiations in Switzerland. Others report that they are still there and are still negotiating with the US. Or preparing to negotiate. Or, perhaps, something else entirely. 





From the visuals and what the Iranians are saying, they are at the very least in a significant pause. We have the video from the moment when they informed the Pakistanis that they were walking:

There’s plenty of performance going on here, with J.D. Vance being conciliatory, while Donald Trump is throwing down threats here in the United States. 

It’s clear that not only the Iranians are interested in insulting the United States delegation. Qatar’s intermediary ignored Vance’s attempt to shake hands with him, more than suggesting that Qatar is acting on behalf of Iran at this stage. 

The main focus of today’s talks is/was supposed to be the war in Lebanon, with the Iranians seeming to demand a full withdrawal of Israel from Lebanon, claiming that the United States is violating the MOU by allowing Israel to continue defending itself against Hezbollah attacks. Trump seems to have sided with Israel, placing the onus on Iran to keep Hezbollah in check, and explicitly threatening Iran with retaliation directly if it does not hold Hezbollah in check. 





Trump didn’t just threaten Iran itself, but after Iran announced a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump went further and threatened the negotiating delegation from Iran itself. 

That threat seems to stem from what appears to be a dramatic slowdown in traffic through the Strait. There was some dispute about whether or not the threatened closure of the Strait was effective or not. Yesterday, after the IRGC announced the closure, it appeared that traffic remained flowing freely through the Strait. 

Since then, though, traffic has slowed to a trickle, and some ships have turned back, unwilling to risk transit. 

Iran’s re-closure of Hormuz is already measurable in the data.

12 transits today, down from 21+ on June 20. 

Neutral and European commercial tonnage: absent. 

5 of 8 inbound vessels: dark. 

The MOU-driven recovery that began June 18 has stalled within 24 hours of the announcement.

The current traffic profile: dark, sanctioned, Iranian-linked, resembling the late-blockade baseline more than a functioning open strait.

Watch the next 48–72 hours.





Some traffic is still exiting, but it is unclear if this includes ships that Iran doesn’t want to leave. Obviously, if only or primarily Iranian shipping can move, that is…suboptimal. Trump’s angry Truth post seems to indicate that Iran is having an impact on Gulf traffic. 

Earlier today there was a round of short discussions, but they were entirely focused on Iran’s desire to get Israel out of Lebanon. They are refusing to discuss nuclear issues until the United States pressures Israel to leave Southern Lebanon. 

NEW | The Iranian regime has insisted that it will not discuss Iran’s nuclear program during the US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland today, which is consistent with Iranian efforts to delay nuclear discussions until the United States meets Iranian demands.

IRGC-affiliated media claimed that Iran’s nuclear program is not on the agenda for the talks and that Iran’s negotiating delegation does not include members of Iran’s “nuclear committee.” The Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson similarly stated that the talks are focused on securing a ceasefire on all fronts, the lifting of sanctions, and the release of frozen Iranian assets.

These comments are consistent with ISW-CTP’s assessment on June 20 that Iran would likely use the talks to pressure the United States to compel Israel to halt operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and to discuss the economic relief components of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding.

Western media reported that the agenda of the talks originally focused on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions waivers for Iranian oil exports, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets, but that US Vice President JD Vance added Lebanon to the agenda. A diplomat attending the talks similarly told a CBS News correspondent that an “emergency session” regarding Lebanon was added to the agenda.

It is possible that Iran is denying that it will discuss nuclear issues at the talks in order to placate parts of the Iranian regime and population that have insisted that Iran should not engage in any talks with the United States until the United States meets Iran’s demands.

ISW-CTP will provide further analysis about the US-Iran talks in its June 21 update.





The diplomatic niceties prior to the talks started off very badly, with the Iranian delegation making Vance wait for their arrival, and when they did enter the room, they only acknowledged their hosts, refusing to shake hands with Vance or even acknowledge his presence. It was clearly a power move, trying to suggest that Vance was a supplicant who need not be given any respect. 

BREAKING: Iran’s negotiating delegation led by Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf refused to take a photo with US Vice President Vance and the American side before walking out of the Switzerland negotiation venue in protest of Trump’s threats, with a member of Iran’s delegation saying talks are now fully suspended over the threats and the war in Lebanon.

Critics of the Memorandum of Understanding are playing up the diplomatic snub directed at Vance, while Vance himself has been much more upbeat about how things have been going. 

This was humiliation. No one in modern history has made America wait and beg for negotiations. This was the moment JD Vance should have returned to Washington. The Islamic regime did this on purpose. Trump, if you don’t understand politics, you should at least understand protocol.

The visuals from Switzerland:

• The U.S. delegation entered well before the Iranians. In diplomacy, the side with leverage doesn’t wait in the room. You claim to be leading and winning, yet you arrived first. First mistake.

• Ghalibaf did not enter while the press was inside. JD Vance did. Another mistake. It looked as though you didn’t just abandon allies, including Israel, you also diminished America’s image by ignoring basic diplomatic protocol.

• The Iranian foreign minister entered last and refused to shake hands. We didn’t need photographs to tell us who looked confident and who looked desperate, but these images made it easy for the world to draw its own conclusions.





Frankly, I am not competent to judge how this looks, since the audience is the one to judge what they see. Clearly, the Iranians wanted to project dominance, but it is possible that Trump and Vance are playing good cop, bad cop. After all, Trump is not playing the 70-pound weakling if he is threatening to destroy Iran and take over the Strait of Hormuz. 

Trump’s floating that the United States seize the Strait of Hormuz and begin charging its own tolls came as a bit of a surprise. You can view it as a bit of jiu-jitsu, a simple threat, or an odd way to claim that the Strait should be open to the free flow of traffic under international law. 

“You close it and you won’t have a country.” President Trump said he told Iranian officials about the Strait of Hormuz. “You won’t even make it back to your fu*king country.””We may take over the Strait, if we have to,” Trump said. “If they don’t make a deal, we’ll collect tolls.”Trump added the U.S. could become the “Guardian Angel” of the Strait, and take 20% of the oil.

Obviously, everything that we see in front of the cameras is posturing, and all we can tell is that Iran is trying to present an image of strength and dominance. That doesn’t necessarily mean that they have the upper hand as much as they want us to believe, of course. 





But the signals aren’t good. The Strait seems to be closed to traffic that Iran doesn’t want passing through, while their own ships and their allies’ are getting through, and they are doing their best to make Vice President Vance look weak. They are refusing to discuss nuclear issues until the Lebanon conflict ends, and now Trump is back to threatening to destroy Iran. 

If nothing else, it doesn’t seem like the talks have started on a good note. Trump is clearly very unhappy, the Iranians are dicking us around, and Vance is not having a good time in Switzerland. 


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