Iran to the world: “That’s a nice oil tanker you got there; it would be a shame if something happened to it while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”
Lucky us! Iran has set up the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which will allow you to transit the Strait—after considering your application to do so—if you pay insurance fees to it.
It has already begun requiring that ships apply for permission to cross the Strait of Hormuz, and it will kindly get back to you within 48 hours to inform you whether you may pass.
Even more generously, any insurance fees will be waived by the PGSA for 60 days—the period stipulated within the Memorandum of Understanding—but after that the unspecified fees will be announced.
BREAKING: Iran has declared that ships cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz without its permission, setting the stage for future tolling arrangements by saying it could introduce “insurance fees,” per Bloomberg.
Details include:
1. All vessels that transit the Strait of Hormuz…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 19, 2026
BREAKING: Iran has declared that ships cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz without its permission, setting the stage for future tolling arrangements by saying it could introduce “insurance fees,” per Bloomberg.
Details include:
1. All vessels that transit the Strait of Hormuz will have to secure a mandatory insurance policy
2. This policy is currently free for the next 60 days but could involve charges in the future
3. Iran also said ships must follow its prescribed route and that alternatives are prohibited
The MoU signed with the US only says that transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be free for the duration of its 60 day term.
It appears Iran is preparing for long-term control of Hormuz.
It’s very comforting, I am sure, to everybody concerned that Iran has set up this protection racket—I mean insurance scheme—to ensure the safety of ships that used to transit the Strait of Hormuz with only the benefit of commercial insurance, as takes place in other Straits around the world.
Following the Islamabad MoU and official directives, vessels that submit compliant transit requests will be permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz during the announced period.
Details: https://t.co/7SPYB6INvI https://t.co/UjXJxljD6E pic.twitter.com/78Jte5aFpg
— PGSA | نهاد مدیریت آبراه خلیج فارس (@PGSA_IRAN) June 19, 2026
Iran, you see, looks out for the health, safety, and welfare of all ships, and especially the ships transiting the Strait to the Gulf countries it has been hitting with missile and drone strikes.
As far as I can tell, this is totally consistent with the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding, which made it crystal clear that toll-free passage was only guaranteed for 60 days. Trump has said, quite often, that he expects the Strait to remain toll-free, but does that assurance really apply to “insurance” fees?
We don’t know. The MOU certainly doesn’t say so, which makes it a part of the negotiation. And Iran has indicated multiple times that it will include Qatar in its plans to control the Strait, giving our “ally” a mighty incentive to advocate for some “flexibility” on our behalf.
Iran is playing its cards very well. Radioing ships that the Strait is closed, upping risks for commercial shipping, while simultaneously denying that they are closing the Strait. No doubt the “official position” will be that the Strait is open and that they are complying with the MOU, while keeping the risk premium on shipping high by having IRGC commanders at the Strait tell ships that they don’t have permission to pass.
Iran said ships that cross the Strait of Hormuz need its permission to pass the vital waterway, in a document that sets the stage for future tolling arrangements https://t.co/rE20yaLhfW
— Bloomberg (@business) June 19, 2026
That will keep ordinary insurance rates sky-high and slow traffic through the Strait, as commercial shippers have to decide whom to believe and what level of risk they are willing to take.
It’s also clear that all that talk of hardliners in Iran being angry about the deal is another way to keep up the pressure on Trump. Portraying Iran’s willingness to negotiate as on a razor’s edge gives him an enormous incentive to mollify them, assuming he is committed to maintaining negotiations under almost any circumstances.
That is yet to be seen, but a darn good bet.
So, at the moment, Iran seems to have a lot more control over the Strait post-war than pre-war, and that will likely be a permanent feature of the post-war order.
Now, plenty of people will say, “What else could Trump have done,” and at this point it’s hard to say. Once the cease-fire was allowed to extend to over two months—longer than the actual bombing campaign—time for maneuvering ran out due to dwindling oil supplies in the West. Trump rightly believed that an economic tsunami would hit if he didn’t get the Strait opened.
The ceasefire was an enormous blunder. Extending it time and again gave Iran all the leverage they needed to get to this point.
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