New polling suggests the country is about to see a “racial realignment” in upcoming elections.
A recent analysis shows a consistent downturn in the number of “nonwhites” who call themselves Democrats.
John Burn-Murdoch is the chief data reporter for the Financial Times. His March 11 analysis shows that since 1960, there has been a steady decrease in black people, Latinos, and other nonwhites identifying as Democrats. As it currently stands, about 50% of minorities self-identify as Democrats.
Burn-Murdoch said he foresees that a majority of nonwhite voters could identify as Republicans in future elections.
“The migration we’re seeing today is not so much natural Democrats becoming disillusioned but natural Republicans realizing they’ve been voting for the wrong party,” Burn-Murdoch said.
Other polls have produced similar data. According to Gallup polling, Democrats have lost nearly 20 points in support from black Americans switching party preference in the last three years—down from 86% to 66%.
The Financial Times reporter chalks this up to reduced stigma for voting conservative among nonwhite voters. Basically, conservative people of color are now choosing to vote their values, not party loyalty, Burns-Murdoch says.
One example he shows is on the issues of gun rights and abortion. The percentages of nonwhite voters who vote pro-Second Amendment and pro-life are growing.
These data points could have importance in the upcoming election. For example, in Georgia, eligible black voters make up a third of the population.
In a statement to The New York Times, Joe Biden pollster Celinda Lake said, “We have to get the [African American voter] numbers up and we have to get African American voters out to vote, and we have to get the numbers up with young people and we have to get them out to vote.”
Biden presently has 73% support with black men and 83% support from black women. According to The New York Times, no Democratic candidate has won less than 80% of the black vote since the civil rights movement of the 1960s.
Also according to The Times, former President Donald Trump currently has almost four times the support of black voters than he had in 2020. A New York Times-Siena Poll has him at 23% black support, up from 4% support in 2020 and 6% in 2016.
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