A new study finds the perceived value of a college degree slipped last year among young people, who expressed more confidence in on-the-job training and certifications.
In the findings released this week, Edge Research and HCM Strategists said they analyzed responses from 10 focus groups and two parallel surveys. Building on a 2022 study, they collected data last year from 1,718 high school juniors and seniors and 4,848 adults aged 18-30 who did not attend college or dropped out.
Commissioned by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the study noted declines of up to 6% from 2022 to 2023 among young adults who saw the ability to make more money, get a better job, train for a career or have better job security as “somewhat or very important” reasons to attend college. (The 2022 study did not survey high schoolers.)
The findings suggest the cost of college outweighs the benefits for more young people, said Jessica Collis, director of advocacy and change management at HCM Strategists, a public policy consulting firm.
“They are hearing about things like crippling student loan debt [and] the Supreme Court decision about race conscious admissions,” Ms. Collis told The Washington Times. “Most important, though, they want to know that a college degree will translate into a good job.”
The study noted that 58% of high schoolers and 51% of non-college adults last year said a college degree is necessary for a “good job.” In comparison, 69% and 65%, respectively, said a certification is enough.
Overall, non-enrolled young adults were roughly 10 percentage points less likely than high schoolers to express confidence in the benefits of a two- or four-year college degree. The study noted they were less likely than high school students to hear positive information about higher education.
While college administrators have blamed falling birth rates for over a decade of enrollment declines, the researchers wrote that young people “feel anxious about making the wrong choices” as living costs rise.
The study urged colleges to address young people’s growing debt fears, disinterest in schooling, concerns about inadequate returns on their investment, high stress levels and uncertainty about succeeding in studies.
For example, the study found nearly 40% of high school upperclassmen said they “do not enjoy going to school,” and respondents cited the high cost of a college degree as their top reason for not enrolling.
According to some experts not connected to the study, such findings confirm that more young people would benefit from skipping college to learn a trade.
Stephen C. Miller, an economist at Troy University, a public campus in Alabama, pointed to National Center for Education Statistics data showing that inflation-adjusted tuition at four-year colleges rose by 153% over the past 40 years.
“This necessarily means that for more students than before, college will not pay off,” Mr. Miller said. “While the average increase in earnings justifies the cost of college, there are many below that average for whom the cost is not justified, particularly as the cost rises.”
Mr. Miller added that some campuses have “set many students up for failure” by lowering admissions standards to juice enrollment numbers, ignoring Harvard University research that has found standardized testing remains the best predictor of college success.
Another problem is that college programs have overlooked the fast-shifting needs of a tight labor market, said Andrew Crapuchettes, CEO of RedBalloon, an Idaho-based jobs board.
A recent survey from RedBalloon and PublicSquare found that 83% of business owners said that they were either less likely to hire job seekers with four-year degrees or saw no difference between them and applicants without college degrees.
“Higher ed has lost its focus on its core mission of preparing students for their careers,” Mr. Crapuchettes said. “That’s why so many businesses say that a college degree no longer holds value. At the same time, colleges have developed a revenue model that saddles students with decades of debt payments.”
The Edge Research study found that young people last year needed more guidance in finding a profitable college program, securing financial aid to pay for it and preparing financially for the workforce.
Robert Zemsky, a University of Pennsylvania historian and longtime advocate of offering three-year bachelor’s degrees, said “no one should be surprised” by their hesitation about enrolling.
“Higher education is in a funk,” Mr. Zemsky said. “Every morning brings more bad news: college closings, conflicts on campus, conflicts over [diversity], legislatures punishing colleges. There is no counterbalancing good news.”