Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are now locked in a virtual dead heat in a hypothetical 2028 GOP presidential primary matchup, according to a new poll from Emerson College Polling.
The poll, which shows Rubio gaining ground since February in the hypothetical matchup, comes as Vance denies a report that he has become “isolated” in the White House and is considering not running in 2028.
Neck-and-Neck in the Polls
In the survey, Vance earned 36% support and Rubio 35% among Republican primary voters. Lagging far behind are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley at around 5%. About 15% of voters are undecided. Both DeSantis and Haley were GOP presidential candidates in 2024, and Haley served as Trump’s UN ambassador during the president’s first term.
The numbers show an age gap among GOP voters. Voters under 50 favor Vance 37% to 26%, while older voters favor Rubio 41% to 35%.
Support has “shifted significantly” in Rubio’s direction, according to Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling’s executive director. In a February poll, Vance had 52% support to Rubio’s 20%. “The potential 2028 contenders now compete evenly,” Kimball said.
Rubio Backs Vance, Considers Current Job His Career Apex
While a Vance-Rubio battle to succeed Donald Trump would be a matchup of heavyweight contenders, there might not be a fight. The secretary of state has stated his support for a potential Vance candidacy.
“I think JD Vance would be a great nominee if he decides he wants to do that,” Rubio told Lara Trump of Fox News in July 2025. “I think he’s doing a great job as vice president. He’s a close friend and I hope he intends to do it.”
In a December 2025 interview with Vanity Fair, Rubio said, “If JD Vance runs for President, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him.”
Rubio, in a May interview with NBC News, said of a potential Vance candidacy, “I’ll be the first person to sign up and support him. I think JD would do great.”
Vance Rejects Daily Mail Story He’s Thinking of Not Running
Vance’s team is rejecting a claim made this week by The Daily Mail that the vice president is considering abandoning a run for the presidency in 2028.
Citing unnamed sources, The Daily Mail alleged that Vance has become “more isolated than ever” in the West Wing, particularly with the upcoming departure of Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Both are considered noninterventionists in foreign policy, which the Daily Mail source claims irritates Trump.
‘The president has made it very clear in recent months that he doesn’t abide by this strong, silent Gary Cooper style approach to foreign policy,’ a White House insider told The Daily Mail.
‘He’s loud, he’s active. These guys prefer to speak softly and carry a big stick, but Trump speaks loudly and carries a massive cannon,’ the source added.’
A Vance spokesman immediately shot down the story, saying it’s “just a flimsy compilation of completely illegitimate sources who have no idea what they’re talking about.”
Vance himself has said he won’t make a decision about 2028 until the birth of his fourth child in July, according to The Washington Post.
Still, the vice president was in Iowa earlier this month—the traditional starting line for presidential bids—where he was introduced by the GOP county chair as the “next president of the United States.”
Meanwhile, the current president weighed in on the 2028 race during a Rose Garden event May 11. After polling the crowd on who they preferred, Vance or Rubio, Trump once again described the pair as a 2028 “Dream Team.” Last year, he described Vance and Rubio as “a perfect ticket” and “unstoppable.”
