President Pete?
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is the front-runner to win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, according to an Emerson College poll released Thursday.
Mr. Buttigieg, who rose to political stardom in the 2020 nomination fight as South Bend, Indiana’s “Mayor Pete,” is the preferred pick of 18% of likely Democratic primary voters, followed by Gov. Gavin Newsom of California at 16% and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York at 11%. Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and former Vice President Kamala Harris, the party’s late-innings 2024 nominee, each came in at 10%, with Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky at 9%. Eighteen percent of respondents remain undecided.
The survey showed that support for Mr. Buttigieg and Ms. Ocasio-Cortez has ticked up a couple of points from earlier in the year, while support for Mr. Newsom and Ms. Harris has fallen off four and three points, respectively.
Meanwhile, Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are locked in a statistical tie among a field of possible 2028 Republican contenders, at 36% and 35%, respectively.
Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley both came in at 5%.
Mr. Rubio has gained momentum since February, buoyed by strong support from GOP voters over 50. Mr. Vance is the preferred pick of younger Republicans.
The nomination battles are expected to pick up speed after the midterm elections this fall, providing the latest snapshot of the political climate ahead of the race to replace President Trump, who is term-limited.
The Emerson survey showed Mr. Trump’s approval rating is underwater, with 55% disapproving of the job he’s doing versus 39% who approve, and that Democrats have a 50% to 41% edge over Republicans on a generic ballot.
Mr. Buttigieg was one of the surprise stories of the 2020 nomination race. He finished first in the Iowa caucuses, edging out Sen. Bernard Sanders of Vermont — though a vote-tabulation problem marred the victory.
The former transportation secretary also finished a close second behind Mr. Sanders in the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary.
Mr. Buttigieg’s campaign then lost steam, bogged down in part by questions about his experience and his struggles with Black voters.
Speculation, meanwhile, is running rampant about whether Mr. Vance and Mr. Rubio would run against one another.
The survey was conducted May 24-25, included 1,000 likely voters and had a 3% margin of error.
The polls of likely Democratic and Republican primary voters each had a 4.7% margin of error.
