That’s actually the question. Who’s asking? It might be Donald Trump. It could be Ahmad Vahidi. Or perhaps Xi Jinping has decided to flex his muscles in this standoff after all.
Yesterday, media outlets reported that Vahidi had turned to China for security guarantees in any potential deal with the US:
Iran is reportedly seeking Chinese guarantees before moving ahead with any potential agreement with the United States over the ongoing West Asia conflict, according to top security sources, underscoring Tehran’s continued mistrust of Washington despite active negotiations.
Sources said Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir conveyed Iran’s position to senior Chinese leadership during engagements in Beijing, as diplomatic efforts gather pace around a possible US-Iran understanding, according to the same sources.
They added that Tehran is pushing for Beijing to act as a guarantor in any future arrangement with Washington, particularly on regional security issues and Iran’s nuclear programme.
A key element under discussion, according to the sources, is the possibility that Iran could transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to China, but only if it receives what they described as “high-powered guarantees” in return.
The Jerusalem Post reports that similar reports have bubbled up in other media outlets:
In the ongoing US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, Iran may consider transferring its 60% enriched uranium, which currently lies beneath the rubble of bombed nuclear facilities, but could potentially be quickly weaponized, to China.
Multiple media reports have carried the same indications and China has not denied the reports, and a response from its Foreign Ministry seems to leave the possibility open.
How open was China to the possibility? Beijing-controlled Global Times reported on the statement, and made sure the neon OPEN sign was lit up and flashing:
Regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, China has consistently supported the peaceful resolution of the issue through dialogue and negotiation, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at a regular press briefing on Tuesday, responding to a media inquiry about reports that Iran is seeking guarantees from China before reaching a deal with the US and question about whether Iran has requested China’s assistance in transporting highly enriched uranium to China, and if the relevant reports are true, is China willing to accept Iran’s highly enriched uranium?
Mao said that since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, China has maintained close communication with all relevant parties, including Iran, and has been working actively to promote a ceasefire and facilitate peace talks.
Mao stated that it is hoped that all relevant parties can seize the opportunity to reach a solution through negotiations that takes into account the legitimate concerns of all sides. China is also willing to continue playing a constructive role in the political and diplomatic resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue, safeguard the international nuclear non-proliferation regime, and promote peace and stability in the Middle East and the world.
By this time, it has become abundantly clear to all parties that Trump wants the “nuclear dust” out of Iran, permanently, and won’t take any sort of deal without it. Iran does not want to give Trump a clear victory out of Operations Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury, but the regime has reached the point where Vahidi may have to choose between its highly enriched uranium (HEU) and survival. A transfer to a third party may be Vahidi’s only way out of the siege he has triggered.
Trump made his red line clear again last night on Truth Social, but left some ambiguity on the destination for the HEU transfer:
The Enriched Uranium (Nuclear Dust!) will either be immediately turned over to the United States to be brought home and destroyed or, preferably, in conjunction and coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, destroyed in place or, at another acceptable location, with the Atomic Energy Commission, or its equivalent, being witness to this process and event. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT
“Or at another acceptable location” is an indicator of some flexibility. It’s not new, however; there had been some rumblings about a transfer to Russia early in the war. Vladimir Putin has vested interests in Iran’s military-industrial infrastructure, which has supplied high-level drones to the Russians in Ukraine for the past four years. Trump had suggested third-party transfers more generally since last summer as well, but the Iranian regime refused to even discuss it … until now.
Also: Just the fact that Vahidi’s seeking China’s intervention belies the regime’s claim to superpower status, or even hegemon status. If Iran had that kind of power, it wouldn’t have to beg China to act as a guarantor on the deal. Vahidi is isolated, bankrupt, and looking at decades of rebuilding to regain its prewar strength. It can threaten people with missiles, but even that proved very limited as a deterrent to the US or Israel.
Now that the blockade has pushed Iran to the brink of economic collapse, as Duane detailed earlier, Vahidi may have reconsidered the value of retaining the HEU. If Vahidi wants to pull Xi into the talks, then Xi will get what he wants from the crisis. And what Xi needs is a return of his supply of cheap oil from the Persian Gulf. The longer the HEU sits in Iranian hands, the longer Xi has to wait for the oil supply to return to normal. The fastest route to a return to relative normalcy and to keep China’s own economy propped up would be for Xi to take possession of the HEU and allow all sides to dial down the tension enough to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all parties.
That’s the best of all worlds for Xi, as it also increases his leverage with Trump. If Xi takes the HEU, he can say – with some justification – that he’s done Trump a solid, and expects a solid in return. Xi can always decide to return the HEU at some point if Trump plays hardball on Taiwan or trade, although after this, even Xi has to realize how dangerous the IRGC regime would be with it. Xi might step it down considerably, but he’d almost certainly treat it as an escrow holding for Iran, just in case the US-China relationship goes south.
Even so, that would be a win for Trump, as long as Iran verifiably transferred all of its HEU stock out of the country. Having Xi take possession rather than the US would not add serious complications to his dealings with Beijing, which already has plenty of its own leverage. Once the nuclear threat is removed, everything else becomes transactional, and Trump will have gotten what he wanted all along. In fact, this is so much of a win-win for both Xi and Trump that it seems too good to be true. Stay tuned, nonetheless.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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