The world finally got a peek at SpaceX’s closely held financials, after Elon Musk’s closely held space launch company filed for its initial public offering on Wednesday — and the details made a bigger splash than one of the company’s Starships making an uncontrolled water landing.
The first shocker is that Musk’s salary last year was just $54,000. That’s about the same as a new human resources assistant or an apprentice electrician. That’s the only small figure you’ll see in the rest of this column because after this, the zeros get added on in a hurry.
You know what? Forget the tease, and let’s go straight to the biggest figure.
In SpaceX’s nearly 400-page S-1 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the company projects a Total Addressable Market (TAM) of $28.5 trillion. That’s a two and an eight and a five followed by 11 zeros.
TAM is business jargon for “What’s the size of our market if everybody who needed our product or service actually bought our product or service?” SpaceX’s TAM includes launch customers, Starlink users, and xAI (that’s the company’s AI division) compute services.
It’s the company’s compute ambitions that account for the lion’s share of the TAM.
Of the $28.5 trillion, “only about $2 trillion is directly related to space or the company’s Starlink network,” Ars Technica reported. “The remaining $26.5 trillion is believed to come from AI, largely from enterprise applications.”
I had no idea how big xAI had already gotten until the Wall Street Journal revealed Wednesday night that “SpaceX is renting out compute capacity across its two large data centers to Anthropic, for some $1.25 billion a month.”
And Anthropic is a rival.
It’s no small feat when your competitor pays you nine figures, 12 times a year, for the privilege of using the same data centers you use for your LLM to run theirs. Nice work if you can get it, right?
“We believe we have identified the largest TAM in human history,” the company boasted in its S-1 report. “We believe our next trillion-dollar market is AI compute, which we contemplate will leverage our rockets and satellites for massive orbital deployment.”
Putting computer centers in orbit solves the power problem with unlimited solar, and also clears a lot of regulatory hurdles. By hundreds of miles. The problem, of course, is getting all those birds flying.
In January, SpaceX applied to the FAA for permission to launch one million satellites into Earth’s orbit to power xAI. One million satellites might be nothing more than a dream, but Starship — aka The Most Powerful Rocket in the World and Getting More Powerful All the Time — is key to realizing just a fraction of it.
The launch window for Starship Flight Test 12 opens at 6:30 p.m. Eastern today.
So what’s this about Musk’s trillion-dollar payday?
Musk’s salary might not be any bigger than a typical base-level IT support specialist’s, but he also has two yuge equity packages based on stellar performance.
In March, SpaceX awarded Musk more than 300 million shares. But those shares only vest when and if the company completes construction of its “non-Earth-based data centers,” including 12 market cap goals that add $6.6 trillion in shareholder value. That’s more than triple the best current estimate of SpaceX’s worth.
That’s not the big payout, however.
Musk will also earn more than one billion Class B shares when and if the company establishes “a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants,” and another series of market cap goals that increase the company’s worth by $7.5 trillion.
With this IPO, Musk will almost certainly become the world’s first trillionaire. If he completes just one of the company’s two (admittedly ambitious) payouts, he’ll instantly become the first multitrillionaire.
But let’s bring all this back down to Earth for a moment. Asa Fitch noted for the WSJ that “SpaceX made $18.7 billion of revenue last year. Getting to trillions will take quite a while, if it happens at all.”
That is an awfully big if. But if investors had to bet on anybody being able to do it — and they’ll finally get their chance with this IPO — it has to be the company’s $54,000 man.
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I Can’t Give You a Trillion Dollars
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