Sen. Bill Cassidy, Louisiana Republican, is holding what appears to be a losing political hand heading into his primary election on Saturday.
President Trump endorsed one of Mr. Cassidy’s Republican challengers in the first year in which the state is conducting closed-party primaries.
“It’s a question of whether Cassidy loses this weekend or in the eventual runoff,” said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ election prognosticator.
Mr. Coleman, a New Orleans native, told The Washington Times that Mr. Cassidy, who is running for a third term, “more or less signed off the end of his political career” with his 2021 vote to convict Mr. Trump on impeachment charges of “the incitement of insurrection” over the Jan. 6 riots at the Capitol.
Mr. Cassidy is the only Republican senator running for reelection this cycle that Mr. Trump has explicitly endorsed against.
“The only reason we have a race is because Donald Trump has a personal vendetta against Cassidy now and he wants to take him out,” Louisiana political analyst Robert A. Collins told The Times.
Mr. Collins, a professor at Dillard University in New Orleans, said the pro-Trump state legislature helped stack the deck against Mr. Cassidy by scrapping the state’s open primary system, in which he could rely on help from crossover Democratic voters.
“The closed primary system was specifically designed to get rid of Bill Cassidy,” he said. “In fact, most people agree that once this election cycle ends, they’re planning to go back to an open primary again, because the closed primary is very unpopular with the people of Louisiana.”
Mr. Trump’s pick in the Senate race is Rep. Julia Letlow, a third-term House member.
She was first elected to Congress in a 2021 special election for a seat her husband won but could not fill because he died of COVID-19 complications a few days before he was to be sworn in.
The other contender is Louisiana state treasurer John Fleming, who previously served four terms in the U.S. House and various roles in the first Trump administration, including deputy chief of staff.
Mr. Fleming, who was the first Republican to announce plans to challenge Mr. Cassidy, said the incumbent’s vote to convict Mr. Trump is the number one issue in the primary.
Mr. Collins agreed the conservative backlash against the incumbent is primarily over that one vote.
Mr. Cassidy has tried to make amends and show he is aligned with the president and his agenda, but those efforts did not win over Mr. Trump and may not sway enough Louisiana Republicans.
“You see his account on Twitter posts stuff like, oh, well, we have a poll showing that 69% of Republican voters have a favorable opinion of Bill Cassidy,” Mr. Coleman said. “That’s not that great.”
Mr. Cassidy has been trailing behind Ms. Letlow and Mr. Fleming in most polls of likely Republican primary voters.
If no candidate earns more than 50% of the vote on Saturday — an outcome that is likely — the top two finishers will advance to a June 27 runoff election.
The most recent poll from Quantus Insights, conducted May 6-7 while early voting was underway, had Ms. Letlow ahead with 42%, followed by Mr. Fleming at 30% and Mr. Cassidy at 20%.
The results combined firm supporters and those leaning toward a specific candidate.
Mr. Fleming told The Times his internal polling shows a much tighter race in which he is leading but pointed to a late April survey from Emerson College as the only truly independent poll.
That poll showed Mr. Fleming narrowly leading with 28% support over 27% for Ms. Letlow and 21% for Mr. Cassidy.
An early May survey from Ms. Letlow’s polling firm, Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, also showed a relatively close race with her leading at 32% support, Mr. Cassidy in second with 26% and Mr. Fleming in third at 21%.
Mr. Collins said the polls are all over the place but he expects Ms. Letlow and Mr. Cassidy to advance to the runoff.
“If Fleming were to somehow sneak into the runoff, that would be a big story that would surprise all of us,” he said.
Cassidy campaign manager Katie Larkin said in a statement to The Times that the senator has been campaigning hard but “you can’t take anything for granted.”
“We feel confident heading into Election Day,” she said. “Here are the facts: Liberal Julia Letlow calls herself a ‘progressive leader,’ advocates for more DEI programs and seems to have committed voter fraud. She’s never gotten a bill signed into law. In contrast, conservative Bill Cassidy has successfully delivered for Louisiana again and again.”
Mr. Fleming argued he has the most conservative voting record of the three, pointing to scorecards run by a variety of right-wing groups.
He said he is running a grassroots campaign fueled by individual Louisiana donors, while his opponents are “heavily supported by dark money, untraceable money, especially Letlow.”
“We see the energy on the ground,” Mr. Fleming said, noting he has conducted more interviews, personal appearances and speeches than his opponents put together.
The Times has reached out to Ms. Letlow’s campaign for comment.
Senate GOP leaders are backing Mr. Cassidy’s campaign, as is usual with incumbent senators, but the party’s campaign arm is not pouring as many resources into his race as others where the party could be in danger of losing the seat in the general election.
Louisiana is not a swing state and whoever does emerge from the GOP primary will be heavily favored in November.
“Bill Cassidy has been a terrific senator for Louisiana,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, South Dakota Republican, told reporters Thursday.
If Mr. Cassidy makes the runoff, he will still have a tough battle ahead to secure the Republican nomination.
“If he doesn’t run first on Saturday, he’s pretty much done,” Mr. Collins predicted.
