A “jungle primary” is also known as a “blanket primary” or a “top-two primary.” The concept is that all of the candidates compete against each other regardless of party affiliation. The voters are then free to vote for whomever they wish and the two candidates with the highest percentage of votes face off against each other in the general election.
As you have probably deduced already, with this type of system, it’s entirely possible to have two candidates from the same party squaring off against each other. Those who are critical of the system argue that if you have two candidates from the same party in the general election, the voters’ choices are limited. Proponents of the jungle primary say that it encourages candidates to take more moderate positions because of their need to appeal to a wide range of voters.
California switched to the jungle primary system in 2012. The state, as we all know, leans so far left that it is in danger of falling off the earth. So, the thought of having two Democrats running for the same office in a general election should send chills down any conservative’s neck who lives there. Without a lone voice crying out in the California wasteland of liberalism, conservatives would literally be voting for the lesser of two evils.
However, there is no honor among thieves, and the more powerful (or more liberal) California Democrats have at times used the conservatism of Republicans against their Democratic opponents in the ultra-liberal state.
In deep-blue California, where just one quarter of voters are registered Republican and the GOP hasn’t won a statewide office since 2006, many Democrats would rather face a Republican in the general election because it virtually assures their victory. In 2018, then Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom was running for governor. During a debate he said a Republican would be an “ideal” opponent in the fall.
During his campaign, Newsom devoted a lot of attention to Republican candidate John Cox, helping him finish second in the top-two primary, because Newsom did not want to face Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa, the former mayor of Los Angeles, in November. He accomplished this by running ads, some on Fox News, that promoted Cox as a staunch conservative in comparison to himself. This bonded Republicans to Cox and assured him the number two position. He then defeated Cox easily in the general election.
In the 2022 midterms, the Republicans did the opposite by overpopulating the ballot, which cost them the District 4 Senate seat. Six Republicans believed they had a chance to win and fought amongst themselves. That effectively fragmented the Republican vote and allowed two Democrats, Tim Robertson and Marie Alvarado-Gil, to finish one and two, handing the seat to the other party.
At the time, Joseph Day, Stanislaus County’s Republican chairman, told GV Wire:
This is the nightmare scenario. A lot of people thought that they would have a chance to win. So, they jumped in, but they split the votes and that’s unfortunately what can happen.
In the current California primary for Dianne Feinstein’s vacated Senate seat, there are three Democrats and one Republican running. The Democrats are led by the GOP’s old nemesis Adam Schiff, who has his Outer Limit like bulging eyes firmly set on the prize. His two comrades on the ballot are Rep. Katie Porter and Rep. Barbara Lee.
The Republican running is Steve Garvey, a former Major League Baseball Player that spent 19 seasons starring with the Los Angelas Dodgers and San Diego Padres. His nickname while playing was “Mr. Clean” because of his no drinking or drugs lifestyle. Quite the contrast to California’s sleazy equivalent of Marty Feldman.
When not studying conspiracy theories and drawing mustaches on Trump posters in his office, Schiff has been busy tearing pages out of Newsom’s playbook.
Schiff and his comrades have spent a staggering $11.2 million on ads elevating Garvey in hopes of eliminating the main Democratic thorn in his side come November.
The ads highlight that Garvey voted twice in the past for Trump and declare that he is too conservative for California. Schiff seems to be most concerned with Rep Katie Porter, whom he would obviously prefer to avoid facing in the general election.
For her part, Porter calls Schiff’s spending cynical and has ridiculed Schiff for buying ads on Fox News a year after he sent out a fundraising email arguing that companies should not patronize the network that echoed Trump’s opinions about the 2020 election.
Still, when in Rome, so Porter has delved into the game as well. In an attempt to limit Garvey’s support, according to data from AdImpact, she is running at least a half million dollars in ads profiling Eric Early, a long, long-shot GOP contender. Her strategy is to promote Early as a “100 percent pro-Trump candidate” who “loves the Second Amendment” and is “way more dangerous than Steve Garvey.”
She put it this way:
Steve Garvey is never going to be California’s next senator, and everyone knows it. Representative Schiff is giving the GOP a gift, and Steve Garvey is the bow on top of the package.
For his part, Garvey is laying low. He entered the race in October and has rarely been seen on the campaign trail. In December he went on a brief campaign tour that included a trip to the U.S.-Mexico border and a visit to the Salton Sea, where he heard about environmental concerns. In January, he toured several homeless encampments and met with Jewish leaders in the Bay Area to express his support for Israel.
According to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, he has spent less than $1.4 million, a fraction of the nearly $39 million Schiff has spent over the course of the race and far less than the $23.1 million spent by Porter.
What is wild about the entire scenario is that Garvey is literally playing with house money. The California electorate is only 24 Percent Republican so Garvey has virtually no chance of beating Schiff in November in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1988. Still, he has the luxury of sitting back while two Democrats fund the same campaign that he himself probably would have run in a losing cause, without really campaigning and without spending the money.
Could the strategy backfire and bring about a major upset? Well, a new poll from the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley gives Garvey 27 percent support against 25 percent for Schiff, according to The Hill. That’s within the 2-percentage point margin of error of the poll. The poll was conducted Feb. 22-27 among 6,536 registered voters. The poll found Porter was third at 19 percent support while Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee (of $50 minimum wage fame) was at 8 percent.
Garvey claims he isn’t a partisan politician. When he entered the race last year he told Fox News that education and safety are important issues to him.
These steal-and-smash mobs that are going around are something that started in the last year or two. Not only is it about thievery, it’s about danger to people.
Parents are feeling that they’re not able to provide safety and a pathway for their children to be educated adults so that they can go out in the world and be productive. I think we need to get back to education that gets to core issues — core issues of preparing our children and getting away from social issues that have the tendency to confuse our children.
Does Garvey have a legitimate chance to win? Probably not. GOP strategist Rob Stutzman put it this way:
He has become a vessel of opportunity for Schiff to avoid a tough November race. Now, having said that, it’s also great for Republicans — they are much better off with a Senate candidate in the fall for down-ballot races.
How sweet would it be if Lightning struck and Garvey somehow won the Senate race after Schiff provided the wind beneath his wings.
Political suicide by finance, no dossier required.