Welcome to Super Tuesday week. True, it doesn’t make sense to suggest that one day could equal a week, but for purposes of discussing the 2024 election, tomorrow’s results from more than a dozen states will basically shore up who will be the presidential nominees for their respective parties.
Of all the election Tuesdays (or any of the other days) in every quadrennial calendar, “Super” Tuesday is the big banana, the one with all the marbles, the day to end all days… or however else you’d care to describe it.
For what it’s worth, the states holding their primaries or caucuses tomorrow are: Alabama, Alaska (GOP only), Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia… and the U.S. territory of American Samoa. Don’t forget that one!
With a concerted push from a number of states to move up their positions on the primary voting calendar, Super Tuesday now essentially functions as an establishment or incumbent protection device, since only those with near-universal name recognition and the ability to raise money quickly and in large amounts could hope to compete for delegates everywhere. Everyone knows candidates spend much time and mucho dollars buying access to media in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina – a.k.a., the “early voting” states – but imagine attempting to spread that philosophy to the host of election days tomorrow.
It goes without saying that the data tricks and strategies kick into full gear to turn out the vote in all of these places, and the candidates themselves must be selective in devoting hours to any of them individually, since time is precious and so are the opportunities to make a small bit of difference when the votes are counted.
Super Tuesday won’t necessarily function differently than any of the other election days this year, with two candidates so far out in front heading into it. It’s more like a coronation for former president Republican Donald Trump and current incumbent bumbling Democrat president senile Joe Biden. This hasn’t stopped some from continuing their fights for a replacement general election matchup. The rhetoric appears to be only getting hotter and more desperate.
“As Nikki Haley stubbornly clings to life ahead of Super Tuesday, warning that nominating Donald Trump for president a third time would mean ‘suicide for our country,’ some of her closest supporters take solace in the fact that the future is unknowable.
“Perhaps there is a ‘fatal landmine’ that the former president ‘could step on at any minute’ or a lurking controversy that could ‘land him deep in the bottom of a well,’ speculated Michigan State Rep. Mark Tisdal, who served on Haley’s leadership team for that state. ‘She is an alternative,’ added Utah state Sen. Todd Weiler, who campaigned with Haley earlier this week, ‘and nobody knows what the future holds with the lawsuits and the age of both of our leading candidates.’…
“Now the last woman standing, the former diplomat has been more aggressive with Trump as he gains momentum. But Troy Eid, a former U.S. attorney during the Bush administration who now co-chairs Haley’s Colorado leadership team, said Haley ‘is not trying to cut people out; she’s trying to make the tent bigger.’ If she fails in that mission, he worries, ‘the country will go off a cliff.’”
There are many people, including probably most of Donald Trump’s backers, who already think the country is headed off a cliff and that’s the major reason why they’ve chosen to favor the proven leadership qualities of a man who’s already been there and knows what to do to slam on the brakes far better than someone like Nikki Haley could.
To her credit (I guess), Haley has kept her vow to stay in the Republican contest at least through tomorrow’s Super Tuesday elections, despite louder and louder demands for her to take her establishment-based (and backed) campaign paraphernalia and head back in the direction from which she came. Where that happens to be isn’t exactly clear since Haley’s station was so far removed from the public eye that no one’s quite sure where her home base would be now.
Up until recently, Haley has maintained an air of unpredictability, since historically speaking, candidates without a prayer of winning typically exit by Super Tuesday. While it could be argued that Nikki’s outperformed expectations thus far, she hasn’t pushed any state’s results down to the final hours much less the last minute. There haven’t been any recounts, lawyers questioning results from certain counties, potential election shenanigans, etc.
Nope; it’s mostly just been bored network political anchors coming on air and repeating the same storyline, over and over. It sounds a little like this: “As the polls close in State X, it’s clear from our exit data that Donald Trump has won a convincing victory there, something the locals have been expecting for weeks.”
The difference tomorrow being that polls on the west coast won’t close until well after most east coasters go to bed, so the early projections of Trump wins won’t necessarily influence the last remnants of Haley’s support in places like Alaska, Utah, Colorado and California. Common sense suggests there are likely a ton of Trump haters out yonder, so Haley herself may stay up to concede until, well, Wednesday morning!
The question then becomes if – and when – Haley will finally cool her heels and opt to fill out the details on a future Wikipedia entry on the 2024 Republican primary campaign. As she looks around and notices just about everyone except proven losers Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson (and Mike Pence) having endorsed Trump, how many friends will she still have?
What will her establishment supporters want her to do then? Wegmann’s article concluded with this bit: “No matter the result next week, Eid wants Haley to fight on until victory or the bitter end. ‘I hope she’s there when they’re going to have the national convention,’ he said, ‘even if they don’t let her in the door. At this rate, who knows what will happen, but she needs to be outside and talking about issues like she did yesterday in Colorado.’”
Forgive my sarcasm, but does America really need Nikki Haley still around to talk about 2024 issues? It’s occurred to me, particularly since New Hampshire, that Nikki’s increasingly taken the opportunities to say dumber and dumber things, like “nominating Trump means suicide for our country,” while she continues to insist that Trump will lose in November to a Democrat incumbent who surveys show people don’t want and won’t vote for another term.
It’s been speculated for a long time that Haley is simply waiting around for something to happen to Trump, the magic moment where all the Trump haters’ dreams are realized and the man disappears in a fit of spontaneous combustion and disappears without a trace. God is in charge, so technically this could happen, but the chances aren’t great that it will.
As Eid hinted at above (in the quoted paragraph), some Haley boosters would apparently prefer her to continue going around talking about the things she’s talking about even as the crowds that come to see her become smaller and smaller – and her voice becomes hoarser. Nikki must realize that the party’s over, has been for a while, and anything she does from here on out will do nothing but add fuel to the already considerable pile under her political funeral pyre.
For Haley to state that Republicans choosing Trump are akin to advocating for national suicide isn’t wise. It sounds unhinged, really. Poor Haley has become similar to one of those kooks you see standing on a street corner holding a megaphone sermonizing to passersby or invisible followers. Instead of being a voice of reason regarding Trump’s flaws that are fair game to raise, she’s become a wide-eyed conjecturer of doom that simply won’t materialize.
Is this the way Haley hopes to be remembered for 2024?
What Haley should do now is be content that she did better than anyone, myself included, predicted a year ago when she was the first non-Trump candidate to announce a challenge for the 2024 Republican nomination. It takes guts to put oneself out there, particularly someone as innocuous as Haley who doesn’t come with a natural supportive coalition and could rely on only herself to sing her praises.
Goading Haley into maintaining her insider mission to take down Trump would guarantee her an infamous place in the political loser hall of fame alongside other recent inductees such as Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, John Kasich and the entire staffs of The Bulwark, The Dispatch and Lincoln Project.
Part of every election campaign is the general practice that those who are no longer viable graciously bow out and leave voters to haggle over the remaining candidates to set the direction of the party and hopefully, the country. If this weren’t the case, campaigns could conceivably go on forever – or start even earlier than they already do.
Democrats don’t appear to have the same problem the GOPers are experiencing – rank-and-file members aren’t saying that keeping senile Joe on the party ticket is tantamount to national suicide – though the whispers of discontent have been growing louder of late, particularly since the Special Counsel’s report spilled the truth that Biden has deteriorated considerably.
It’s safe to say that Super Tuesday will not solve a whole lot in terms of who will compete in this year’s general election – that’s pretty much a done deal going into this week. But tomorrow’s primaries still serve a purpose, presenting a chance for voters across the country to reaffirm their support – or lack thereof – for their party’s certain nominee. Will it be exciting?
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2024 presidential election