Florida Rep. Dan Webster, the longest-serving elected official in the state, has decided not to run for reelection in Florida’s 11th Congressional District.
“After much prayerful consideration and discussion with my beloved wife Sandy, I have decided not to seek re-election to the United States House of Representatives,” Webster said.
“It has been an honor and privilege to represent my beloved state in the U.S. House of Representatives. I’ve never taken for granted my responsibility to Florida’s hardworking taxpayers and families to advance common-sense reforms and principled policy. The time has come to pass the torch to the next conservative leader and spend more precious time with my wife, children and 24 grandchildren.”
Webster is not alone.
So far,13 Democrat and 16 Republican representatives have announced they are retiring from public office. Another seven Democrats and nine Republicans are running for the U.S. Senate. And 10 Republicans are running for governor. One Republican is running for attorney general.
All told, 56 current members of Congress aren’t running for re-election: 20 Democrats and 36 Republicans. “At this point in the last four election cycles,” reports Ballotpedia, “there were 44 retirement announcements in 2024, 46 in 2022, 35 in 2020, and 49 in 2018.”
Webster’s seat, and the seat of every other Republican retiring or running for higher office, are relatively “safe,” in that the Republican won his race by 10 points or more.
These districts are almost certainly likely to remain in GOP hands due to high partisan voting numbers:
Florida 2: Neal Dunn (61.6% previous win)
Florida 11: Daniel Webster (Deeply conservative district)
Georgia 1 & 10: Buddy Carter and Mike Collins (R+8 and R+11 CPVI respectively)
Texas 10, 19, & 22: Michael McCaul, Jodey Arrington, and Troy Nehls
Arizona 5 & 8: Andy Biggs and Abraham Hamadeh
New York 21: Elise Stefanik
Three districts are considered toss-ups or lean Republican:
California 48: Darrell Issa (Currently rated Lean D/Tilt D flip by several outlets).
Arizona 1: David Schweikert (Rated as a Tossup).
Michigan 10: John James (running for governor) (Rated as Lean R to Likely D flip).
Democrats in California have been trying to get rid of Rep. Issa for more than a decade. They have gerrymandered his district and put up well-known candidates in California’s open primary. He’s still kicking. I would never count him out of any race.
While James has a strong chance of securing the Republican nomination for Governor, his decision to vacate his House seat has made Michigan’s 10th District a top pickup priority for Democrats in the 2026 midterms.
Following redistricting, Rep. David Schweikert’s seat (AZ-01) became significantly more competitive, covering parts of northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale. The district is now considered a top target for Democrats, as it has shifted toward a more moderate, suburban demographic. His ability to hold the district has historically relied on his reputation for fiscal conservatism, though he now faces some of the narrowest margins of his career.
With the GOP’s razor-thin margin in the balance, Republicans have to hope they can snatch a couple of vulnerable Democratic seats. The most likely targets are:
Maine 2nd: Jared Golden (Trump +10.0). Golden narrowly won his 2024 race by 0.6 points.
Ohio 9th: Marcy Kaptur (Trump +10.5). Kaptur is a longtime incumbent who has consistently defied district lean, winning in 2024 by 0.7 points.
Missouri 5th: Emanuel Cleaver (Trump +15.5). Note that this district underwent significant boundary changes that heavily favored Trump in 2024.
Golden has been a survivor in a quirky Maine electorate. It will almost certainly be close again.
Kaptur is a survivor with a knack for winning very close elections. So far, her luck has held. Don’t bet against her in 2026.
Cleaver is living on borrowed time. Missouri is a strong GOP state, and that may be the difference that sends Cleaver to defeat.
The 56 incumbents leaving their jobs tells us that being a congressman is a lousy job, especially these days with partisan rancor and media attention 24-7. Apparently, enough people can stomach it because there’s never a lack of candidates to take their place.
Related: Radical Leftist Rep. Barney Frank Calls His Party’s Agenda ‘Beyond Politically Acceptable’
Editor’s Note: President Trump is leading America into the “Golden Age” as Democrats try desperately to stop it.
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