It’s time for cherry blossoms again — and officials expect large crowds to brave unpredictable weather for the Tidal Basin’s brightest and pinkest day of the year.
National Park Service officials estimated Thursday that the District’s cherry blossoms will reach their peak bloom between March 23 and March 26, a day later than the period estimated for the past two years.
Jeff Reinbold, National Park Service’s superintendent of the National Mall and Memorial Park, said things could change as horticulturalists monitor unpredictable temperature swings following a second straight year of unseasonably warm winter weather.
“Emerging from the warmest January on record, this has been a particularly puzzling year to read the trees,” Mr. Reinbold said at a press conference.
Peak bloom occurs when 70% of the area’s Yoshino cherry blossoms are open with the “puffy white blossoms … creating a cloud-like effect” among the roughly 3,750 trees that line the basin, according to the park service website.
According to park service officials, an unseasonably warm winter tricks some cherry trees into reacting as if spring has come early, causing them to start opening their buds prematurely.
If temperatures drop below freezing for extended periods in March, water will freeze inside the buds and cause them to fall off. The budding trees would turn brown and bloom again later than expected, potentially “dulling” peak bloom.
Arborists predict peak bloom by looking at indicator trees that start budding 10-14 days before the others.
After recent swings between warm and sub-freezing temperatures, Mr. Reinbold said the “secret indicator trees” have displayed multiple bloom phases for the second consecutive February.
The cherry trees never reached dormancy during the recent warm winter, he added.
The emergence of the cherry blossoms and related celebrations offer D.C.-area residents a hopeful sign of spring each year, with peak bloom drawing the largest crowds of admirers.
Peak bloom varies depending on the weather, with the Environmental Protection Agency reporting that the average date is April 4 after more than a century of data.
However, peak bloom has fallen earlier during the past five years, having occurred on March 23 last year.
The annual National Cherry Blossom Festival, a major source of tourist revenue for the District, will run from March 20 to April 14.
Diana Mayhew, president and CEO of the National Cherry Blossom Festival, said a “record-breaking” number of volunteers has signed up for this year’s festival and noted the opening ceremony on the first day of spring — March 20 — is sold out.
“The enthusiasm around this year’s festival is at an all-time high,” Ms. Mayhew said.
The festival comes as the District struggles with a looming funding crisis, plunging commercial real estate values, rampant crime, the decline of daily commuters due to hybrid work arrangements and an exodus of retail stores and restaurants.
Early this month, the District’s Annual Comprehensive Financial Report found that total commercial real estate value in the city plunged by $11 billion from 2021 to 2023, leading to $200 million in lost tax revenues.
On Thursday, city officials expressed optimism that the cherry blossoms will draw large crowds to local businesses and restaurants. They noted that the festival brings more than 1.5 million visitors to the city each year.
“As the buds begin to bloom, residents and visitors begin to emerge from their winter state,” said Nina Albert, deputy mayor for planning and urban development.
The festival is about making “so many people feel welcome here,” added D.C. Council member Brooke Pinto, Ward 2 Democrat.
This year’s festival commemorates the 112th anniversary of the original Yoshino cherry trees that the mayor of Tokyo gave to Washington, D.C., as a gift in 1912.
Park officials replace about 90 trees each year. Only a handful of the original 1912 trees remain alive.
Artists from the District and Japan perform annually in the festival’s opening ceremony. Other year events include a blossom kite festival, a parade led by Mickey and Minnie Mouse, a “petalpalooza” music concert and a pink-tie dinner party.
Two new features this year will be a March 20-23 evening light show and a cherry blossom “bark” ranger badge from the National Parks Service for dogs that participate in a walking tour.
According to the park service, the Yoshino trees usually bloom for several days with the aid of cool, calm weather.
The earliest the District’s cherry blossoms hit their peak bloom was March 15, 1990. The latest peak bloom date was April 18, 1958.
In a statement to The Washington Times, festival organizers emphasized that the event relies primarily on private sponsorship and “generates more than $100 million in visitor spending” for the city each year.
“It is an economic engine for D.C. in the spring and we have early indicators that this year’s festival will be another success,” the statement read.