Alternate headline: The A-10 Warthogs Have Entered the Chat.
In the wake of Iran’s refusal to negotiate over its highly enriched uranium and its continued attacks on commercial shipping, Donald Trump has decided to redefine the ceasefire on the US-Israeli side as well. Trump accused the IRGC of laying more mines in the Strait of Hormuz, where the US Navy had already begun minesweeping operations. Trump ordered US forces to attack and destroy any Iranian boats attempting to mine the strait or attack shipping:
I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be (Their naval ships are ALL, 159 of them, at the bottom of the sea!), that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. There is to be no hesitation. Additionally, our mine “sweepers” are clearing the Strait right now. I am hereby ordering that activity to continue, but at a tripled up level! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
No more Mr. Nice Trump? Seems like, although his next Truth Social post still offered Iran an offramp … as soon as they can figure out who’s in charge:
Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They just don’t know! The infighting is between the “Hardliners,” who have been losing BADLY on the battlefield, and the “Moderates,” who are not very moderate at all (but gaining respect!), is CRAZY! We have total control over the Strait of Hormuz. No ship can enter or leave without the approval of the United States Navy. It is “Sealed up Tight,” until such time as Iran is able to make a DEAL!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
The US Navy isn’t just working the Strait of Hormuz in shutting down Iran’s import/export business. American naval forces seized another Iranian-linked tanker this morning in the Indian Ocean, full of Iranian oil, most likely bound for either India or China. It’s the second seizure this week in the Indian Ocean, sending the signal that the blockade will get enforced globally, not just in the Gulf of Oman:
A naval boarding team roped down from hovering helicopters and fanned out on the vessel, the M/T Majestic X, according to a Pentagon statement that included a 17-second video of the operation.
The military said the boarding was part of a “global maritime enforcement to disrupt illicit networks and interdict vessels providing material support to Iran, wherever they operate.”
Earlier this week, Navy SEALS boarded another ship in the Indian Ocean, the M/T Tifani, after the Pentagon said it was carrying oil from Iran.
Navy destroyers are also shadowing several other Iranian vessels, including the Dorena and Sevin, which had left from the Iranian port of Chabahar before the U.S.-imposed blockade began on April 13, a U.S. military official said. The Navy is directing those ships to return to an Iranian port, the official said.
Here’s the brief highlight video released by the Pentagon earlier today:
— Department of War 🇺🇸 (@DeptofWar) April 23, 2026
The Iranians are learning an expensive lesson about blockades. Right now, that lesson is mainly financial rather than military, but Trump is about to match Iran’s escalation and raise it several notches. As Trump points out, Iran’s surface and submarine fleet are gone, which leaves them with fast-attack boats as the bulk of their naval power. Those are effective against other light craft and commercial shipping, but will provide a turkey shoot for American naval and air power in and around the Persian Gulf. Without their own naval and air defenses, these boats are easy targets for the A-10 Warthogs stationed in bases around the perimeter, as well as naval air and missile platforms. The Iranian fast-attack boats can put up a fight, but that fight will be brief and very one-sided.
This also increases pressure on Ahmad Vahidi to decide whether he wants to survive without the uranium and enrichment or die while holding onto it. It’s coming back down to that decision, but Vahidi seems to think that the blockade is still working in his favor. That delusion will crash into reality very quickly, Marc Thiessen writes in today’s Washington Post:
The truth is, Iran needs a deal more than Trump does. The country has been battered militarily by almost 40 days of unrelenting strikes, and now it is being battered economically by Trump‘s naval blockade of its ports, which U.S. Central Command reports has “completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.”
About 95 percent of Iran’s commerce goes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Miad Maleki, a former official with the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. If Iran cannot get its oil out of the strait, Maleki told me in a podcast interview, it will have to start storing it — and the regime has only about two weeks’ storage capacity. Once that runs out, it’s going to have to halt oil extraction, which will “cause long-term and permanent damage to their oil infrastructure.” Moreover, he said, about 51 percent of Iran’s oil exports go to support its armed forces, which means the regime will soon run out of money to pay its military — including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now running the country.
The blockade will also build domestic pressure on the regime. Iran doesn’t produce enough gasoline to meet domestic demand, Maleki said, and depends on imports, which means the country will soon suffer massive gas shortages that could spark unrest.
The truth is also that Vahidi probably won’t survive, with or without a deal. He can’t win the blockade for sure, and he can’t win a peace in which he retreats and hands over the uranium and enrichment infrastructure. Vahidi probably can’t win even if he outlasts Trump, because the destruction of the Iranian economy will create massive discontent in a populace that was already on the verge of a revolt before the war. And if Vahidi gets sloppy, he’ll be on the Ali Khamenei route to history when the IDF re-enters the chat, too.
A deal may be Vahidi’s only way to cling to power in the long run. Too bad he’s not wise enough to see it.
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