The Iranian government is at war with itself as much as it is at war with America, Israel, and the Gulf states.
As I have been writing for days now, there is not one Iranian government in charge, but two, battling it out over who controls the entire country.
The IRGC appears to be winning at the moment, which is utterly unsurprising.
What just happened?
Yesterday, at 8:45 AM ET, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” for all commercial vessels.
At 9:06 AM ET, President Trump thanked Iran for reopening the Strait.
Then, at 10:20 AM ET, Trump said Iran and…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 18, 2026
What just happened?
Yesterday, at 8:45 AM ET, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” for all commercial vessels.
At 9:06 AM ET, President Trump thanked Iran for reopening the Strait.
Then, at 10:20 AM ET, Trump said Iran and the US were working together to remove all mines from the Strait of Hormuz.
Between 10:40 AM ET and 12:00 PM ET, President Trump said Iran agreed to “never close the Strait again” and to “suspend its nuclear program indefinitely.”
Suddenly, at 6:14 PM ET, Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament said Trump made “seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false.”
Now, Iran has CLOSED the Strait of Hormuz again and oil tankers are being struck.
It’s pretty clear that the civilian Iranian government was well on its way to a deal with Trump, and even announced that the Strait of Hormuz was open for business again. They had announced it to the world on X, and the Iranians had given ships actual clearance to transit the Strait.
Then, all of a sudden, the IRGC didn’t just close the Strait, but sent boats out to fire on ships that were in the midst of transiting.
Audio of the Indian oil tanker Sanmar Herald pleading with Iranian forces to stop shooting at it in the Strait of Hormuz this morning. pic.twitter.com/7Y5n7Jb7o0
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 18, 2026
The closure was sudden, and not only intended to send a message to the world, but to the internal competitors for power in Iran. “You may have the microphone, but we have the guns.”
🇮🇷 Alleged Recording by the IRGC Navy:
“We will open it by the order of our leader, not by the tweets of some idiot.”
😂pic.twitter.com/2RnuCKBqZN https://t.co/YDnmJRFxdw
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) April 18, 2026
The IRGC’s message is clear: Foreign Minister Araghchi cannot speak for the IRGC, which means he cannot speak for Iran.
Trump has rushed to the Situation Room, and it’s hard to believe that there will be no US response.
JUST IN:
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Full statement by Iran’s military after the new closure of the Strait of the Hormuz:
“Unfortunately, the Americans, with their repeated record of breaching promises, continue to engage in piracy and banditry under the guise of a so-called blockade.
For this… pic.twitter.com/avJgQZj0Ad
— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) April 18, 2026
Full statement by Iran’s military after the new closure of the Strait of the Hormuz:
“Unfortunately, the Americans, with their repeated record of breaching promises, continue to engage in piracy and banditry under the guise of a so-called blockade.
For this reason, control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state and this strategic waterway remains under the strict management and control of the armed forces.
As long as the United States does not enable the complete freedom of movement of vessels from Iran to its destination and from its destination to Iran, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will remain strictly controlled and in its previous state.”
Trump is playing it cool publicly, but it’s hard to say what is going on behind the scenes. He doesn’t telegraph his tactical moves, even if you can parse his strategy from watching what he does.
🇮🇳🇮🇷 India just summoned Iran’s ambassador after two Indian oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz today.
That’s not a minor diplomatic protest. India buys Russian oil through Iran’s backyard and has stayed carefully neutral throughout this entire conflict.
For… https://t.co/q5nBVT97ro pic.twitter.com/6GUpOXJ5LP
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) April 18, 2026
🇮🇳🇮🇷 India just summoned Iran’s ambassador after two Indian oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz today.
That’s not a minor diplomatic protest. India buys Russian oil through Iran’s backyard and has stayed carefully neutral throughout this entire conflict.
For New Delhi to publicly call in Tehran’s envoy and demand safe passage, something shifted.
When India starts making calls like this, the economics of staying neutral get a lot harder to justify.
Things are heating up again, and nobody knows whether talks in Pakistan are still on the table, nor who the Iranians will send.
That battle of wills continues, both inside Iran and between all the international players.
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