California Democrats are left with rock-bottom poll numbers and a dumped pot of mashed potatoes.
They are picking up the pieces from their shattered primary field in the California governor’s race following Eric Swalwell’s shocking exit over bombshell sexual assault allegations.
The leftovers aren’t pretty: a flawed field of Democrats with dismal poll numbers or their own trail of scandals that created an opening for the Republicans to eke out a rare victory in the nonpartisan, top-two primary on June 2.
The most promising Democrats in the race are now hedge fund billionaire and environmental activist Tom Steyer, who struggled ot break out of single digits in polls despite spending $100 million on his race, and former Rep. Katie Porter, who has gone viral in videos berating staffers and is accused by her ex-husband of dumping a bowl of boiling mashed potatoes on his head.
“This is not the Democratic A-Team,” Sonoma State University political science professor David McCuan said.
There are dozens of other Democratic primary candidates running for governor, all polling even lower than Mr. Steyer and Ms. Porter.
SEE ALSO: ‘I did not want to live anymore’: A fifth woman accuses Eric Swalwell of sex attack
It’s caused a panic among Democratic Party leaders who fear they could be locked out of the November ballot if none of their candidates place first or second.
Mr. McCuan said internal polls he’s analyzed show Democrats performing well enough to ensure at least one of them will make it onto the November ballot. But internal polls also show Republian Steve Hilton, who has President Trump’s endorsement, continuing to lead in many of the surveys. Those polls suggest a political opening the GOP has not seen in decades in a California governor’s race, in part because the Democratic field is weak.
A Survey USA Poll released Tuesday showed Mr. Steyer surging with 21% and Mr. Hilton with 18%. The poll was taken just prior to Mr. Swalwell dropping, though some of the respondents were questioned after the sexual assault allegations were reported by news outlets.
The remaining field of Democrats, including Rep. Katie Porter, all polled under 10%. in the Survey USA poll.
Now that Mr. Swalwell has abandoned the race following shocking sexual assault allegations, Ms. Porter expects to see a boost in support, according to campaign staff who say internal polls show her as the second choice among 46% of Swalwell voters.
She’ll undoubtedly get more scrutiny, however, regarding her temperament. Several former staffers have accused her of creating a hostile work environment and berating them with foul language. And she went viral for all the wrong reasons in October after she tried to storm out of a CBS News interview after a reporter asked how she planned to win over the state’s Trump supporters.
Court documents allege Ms. Porter committed domestic abuse against her former husband and dumped a bowl of scalding mashed potatoes on his head in 2006 during an argument over cooking. She denies the potato-dumping claim and said the divorce was contentious. She’s apologized for the outbursts involving staffers, while branding herself as an unapologetic fighter for California’s working class.
“I’m (still) the only candidate in this race who is neither a billionaire nor taking corporate PAC money. Our campaign is powered by tens of thousands of Californians. That’s who the next governor should be focused on — not themselves, not their donors, not any insiders,” Ms. Porter said Monday, taking a swipe at the other Democrats in the race.
Mr. Steyer has already picked up some of the endorsements held by Mr. Swalwell, and, thanks in part to his lavishly self-funded campaign, prediction markets on Tuesday bet he will easily beat the other Democrats and end up on the November ballot.
An April poll conducted by Evitarus for the California Democratic Party showed Mr. Steyer with 11% of support — just one point below Mr. Swalwell. His vast wealth has allowed him to saturate the state with campaign advertising, which will help him remain competitive in the crowded primary field. Mr. Steyer is, like other Democrats, running on an agenda to make California more affordable, and he’s largely dropped his anti-fossil fuel agenda.
The reported $100 million he has spent on his race has mostly kept his poll numbers in the teens or lower, and his ultra-wealth from private equity funds that utilize the same tax loopholes he criticizes may hurt his appeal with voters.
“This state has a long history of not electing self-funders,” one Democratic consultant said. “It’s not a friendly place for people who just try to buy an election. People are suspicious of that.”
Other candidates dwelling in the low single digits hope to rise out of obscurity now that Mr. Swalwell has left the race.
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra hasn’t been able to emerge from the pack despite being the only candidate in the race who has previously won statewide office. Mr. Becerra, who served as California attorney general from 2017 to 2021, has had to defend his leadership following a scandal involving his former chief of staff, Deputy Attorney General Sean McCluskie. McCluskie was convicted of conspiracy to commit bank and wire fraud and stealing $225,000 from Mr. Becerra’s campaign war chest. Mr. Becerra was not implicated in the crime and said he knew nothing about it, but the scandal has raised questions about his competence.
The Survey USA poll showed good news for Mr. Becerra. He started with 4% of support but nearly doubled it with an additional 3% of the vote among respondents questioned after the news broke about the accusations regarding Mr. Swalwell.
Democratic San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan is polling at 4% but is preparing to storm the gubernatorial primary field with a statewide blitz backed by wealthy donors. His team believes he can gain traction in the next three or four weeks, ahead of the first day of mail-in voting, which begins on May 4.
Mr. Mahan is promoting his record as a successful executive running the third-largest city in California and is talking up his plans to make housing and health care more affordable in the state.
Matt Rodriguez, campaign manager for Back to Basics Independent Expenditure, a super PAC supporting Mr. Mahan, said he has an opportunity to surge in the race because, other than Mr. Steyer, whose poll numbers aren’t particularly high, there is no clear front-runner.
“Nobody else is breaking through,” he said.
