The Chinese military has adopted a strategy for a conflict with the United States that calls for “space coercion” as an element of deterrence, according to a U.S. Air Force think tank report.
The report by the China Aerospace Studies Institute is based on writings by People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officials. It reveals that Chinese military planners consider space weapons easier to use than nuclear weapons and think space weapons could more effectively bully the United States.
The report highlights a coercive Chinese military space strategy calling for “compellence” of the United States in peacetime or war rather than relying on traditional threats of nuclear strikes.
China’s growing arsenal of space warfare capabilities includes ground-based anti-satellite missiles, directed energy arms and robot satellites able to cripple U.S. military operations that rely heavily on space systems.
The arsenal, which includes missiles capable of hitting satellites orbiting at all altitudes, “suggest[s] a broad-based program to develop and communicate the existence of space capabilities intended to deter the United States from becoming involved militarily in a conflict with the PRC by threatening U.S. space, nuclear, and conventional capabilities, as well as the U.S. economy,” the Air Force think tank report said.
U.S.-China tensions are growing, particularly with regard to Taiwan’s status.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has vowed to take control of the U.S.-backed island democracy by force, if necessary, and President Biden has said the U.S. military would intervene in the event of a PLA invasion of Taiwan.
The nuclear factor
Nuclear weapons are major elements of Chinese military strategy.
China’s space weapons include a missile-launched nuclear warhead that orbits the Earth, according to the China Aerospace Studies Institute report. It notes that the fractional orbital bombardment system was tested in 2021.
“Coercive space strikes may also include strikes from space to the ground,” the report said. It quoted one Chinese military writing that says strikes from space to Earth offer “unmatched superiority.”
“Targets of orbital bombardment include reconnaissance and early warning systems, communication hubs, and command centers; logistics systems, military-industrial bases, electric power and energy systems, and other infrastructure; and counter-force targets, including missile positions, airfields, naval bases, nuclear bases, and information warfare installations,” the report said.
The report disclosed Chinese plans for nuclear attacks from space after a U.S. intelligence warning sent to Congress said Russia plans to send a nuclear bomb into orbit.
Chinese and Russian use of nuclear weapons in space would violate the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. Moscow and Beijing are signatories to the accord.
Michael J. Listner, a space security expert, said the report highlights the need to further study deterrence and “compellence” from the Chinese perspective, not from the Western point of view.
“This further brings into question whether the Western concept of resilience as a deterrent is a valid strategy and whether the PRC, unlike the West, believes there are winners and losers if hostilities break out in the outer space domain,” said Mr. Listner, principal of Space Law and Policy Solutions, a consulting outfit.
Resilience is a U.S. concept that calls for rapidly replacing damaged or destroyed satellites during a conflict.
Military leaders in China regard space as an offense-dominant zone. They say coercive activities and conflict are likely to begin in space.
The PLA writings cited in the report suggest that Chinese military officials place a high priority on threats to U.S. satellites.
The writings use the Chinese term “weishe,” which is often misinterpreted in the West as limited to deterrence. The PLA uses the word to describe a combination of deterrence and “compellence,” better translated as coercion, the report said.
Space coercion could reduce U.S. conventional military power, but its most important impact would be undermining U.S. nuclear deterrence, according to the report. It says an orbiting nuclear bomb would allow China to evade U.S. early warning systems.
A precision-strike nuclear weapon in space, backed by spaced-based intelligence and tracking, would also give the PLA a greater ability to track, target and attack American nuclear forces, the report said.
Targeting U.S. ground-based surveillance networks from space “could threaten the U.S. nuclear deterrent,” it said.
Various threat levels
The coercive Chinese military space strategy entails eight types of threat levels, the report shows.
They range from using space capabilities to bolster ground forces to power displays, such as China’s 2007 anti-satellite (ASAT) missile test or the more recent use of a space robot to move a satellite to a low-Earth orbit, where it eventually burned up in the atmosphere.
Ultimate space coercion would include kinetic or non-kinetic attacks to disrupt, damage or destroy satellites, the report said. It added that the Chinese Communist Party’s “perceptions of moral superiority” could lead to the use of force.
China’s leaders view space coercion as “more principled than the Western approach,” the report said. Beijing considers space attacks as less destructive and more protective of legitimate interests.
The report cites one PLA study, “A Strategic Vision for China’s Air and Space Security,” which concludes that China would use coercive strikes if its space interests are harmed or if its leaders believe a crisis is on the way to becoming a conflict.
“According to ‘Integrated Aerospace Operations,’ coercive space strikes are intended to achieve limited effects in ways that do not encourage an adversary to escalate,” the report said.
“On the other hand, coercive space strikes can facilitate a transition to war, if necessary,” it said of the Chinese study.
Attacks in space could include electronic warfare strikes against satellites, radars, and communications nodes and computer network attacks. Kinetic attacks would be conducted suddenly, used in short duration, and limited, the report said.
No limits
The China Aerospace Studies Institute report says Chinese military leaders consider space coercion as more effective than terrestrial bullying because the use of weapons against space targets has no political or geographical limit.
A key factor behind Beijing’s thinking is that the threshold for using space weapons is much lower than the use of nuclear weapons.
“The precision of space weapons and their ability to strike at key military and economic vulnerabilities means they can be effective while causing much less collateral damage than a nuclear strike,” the report said.
The PLA thinks terrestrial nuclear threats lack credibility, given that they could lead to a larger war.
Phillip Karber, a strategic deterrence expert and head of the Potomac Foundation, said the Air Force think tank report highlights the need to develop stronger U.S. strategic deterrence capabilities.
Mr. Karber sought to raise awareness of Chinese strategic coercion more than a decade ago.
“The Chinese increasingly view space warfare as means undermining deterrence by not only targeting and degrading Western assets there as a precursor to strategic attacks but also it increases PRC ‘confidence is escalatory actions’ for crisis coercion,” Mr. Karber said in 2009.
A former military strategic deterrence specialist said the report accurately describes Chinese intentions and actions regarding coercive space activities.
“Those activities represent a significant threat to our interests that needs to be addressed with urgency,” the former specialist said on background.
Space coercion does not reflect China’s shift away from nuclear weapons deterrence. Instead, the use of space for deterrence is “additive and very complementary,” they said.
This category of weapons did not exist during the Cold War when strategic arms meant nuclear weapons. Space weapons are non-nuclear strategic capabilities to influence enemy decision-making better than conventional forces.
Cyberwarfare tools and biological weapons — two other key Chinese asymmetric warfare capabilities — also can be used as non-nuclear strategic weapons.
“These capabilities would allow China graduated options to escalate a confrontation to strategic levels without crossing the nuclear threshold, which is why they are attractive, again for reasons the report elaborates,” the former specialist who spoke on background said.
The new weapons have not resulted in a slowdown of China’s nuclear arms expansion, which has been described as unprecedented since the Cold War.
“Unless we have a credible deterrent, which doesn’t have to be in kind, all they need to do is threaten employment and we may be forced to concede,” the former specialist said.