The next session of Congress, which begins in January 2027, will see many new faces, perhaps more than any Congress in history. As of March 2, 52 members of Congress are retiring, some to run for higher office, but most to be turned out to pasture. So far, 31 Republicans and 21 Democrats will be leaving at the end of the term.
The final number won’t be known until May or June, when decisions must be made ahead of the primaries. But it’s entirely feasible that the record for retirements, set in 1992 when 65 members chose to move on, will be equaled or surpassed.
Midterms for the party in power are usually extremely difficult. However, when large numbers of members from both parties intend to leave, history becomes less important compared to other factors like the quality of candidates, fundraising prowess, and the ability of the candidate to build an effective organization.
There are very few competitive congressional districts, thanks to psephologists’ wizardry in slicing and dicing a district’s partisan makeup. But in a midterm election with a smaller turnout, the map expands. “Safe” districts are a relative term.
“In 2018, 34 House Republicans decided not to run for reelection, compared to only 18 Democrats before their party wrested control from the GOP,” as Axios reminds us. That was the previous high for this century, soon to be beaten.
If the present trajectory holds, 2026 could surpass previous highs and mark the largest midterm exodus of House members in nearly a century of data. The moves signal broader unease inside the chamber about the direction of the political winds—and the value of remaining in office in a fraught political environment.
Retirement decisions stem from a mix of political and personal factors. Some lawmakers are at or above the traditional Social Security retirement age of 67 and are ending long congressional careers. Others are pursuing different offices, such as the Senate or governor, or navigating newly redrawn district lines. Some faced potentially difficult re-election campaigns. On the Republican side, run-ins with Trump have made life difficult for a number of lawmakers who have decided to quit.
National Democrats smell blood in the water, thanks to an enthusiasm gap and low approval ratings for the GOP and Donald Trump. Eight months until election day is a long time, however, and it’s entirely possible that a strong economy and a positive outcome from the war with Iran could dramatically change voters’ calculus.
Political prognosticator Larry Sabato points out that, in an age of hyper-partisanship, a large number of retirements isn’t as significant as it used to be.
A hefty number of House retirements means that the number of incumbents seeking reelection this year will be among the lowest in any election since the end of World War II.
But just like in the overall House, uncompetitive seats predominate among the open districts. We also are in an era where the value of incumbency is not as strong as it once was, as Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz noted in a midterm analysis we published last week. That is not to say that none of the retirements are important for the general election—some are important, as we note below—but if there is a big wave in the House, it will have little to do with retirements.
“That more Republicans are retiring than Democrats may also tell us something about which way the political winds are blowing, or at least which way political elites believe the winds are blowing,” Sabato writes. “Some House Republicans may not want to stick around if they believe they are going to be in the minority. More broadly, and to put it lightly, Congress doesn’t seem like a great place to be these days, whether in the majority or the minority.”
That’s been the biggest complaint from retiring members; nothing gets done, and the poisonous atmosphere makes it an extremely unpleasant place to work.
That’s not going to change anytime soon, so the record number of retirements will likely continue for at least the next decade.
Related: Democratic Socialists of America Have Become More Radical and Are About to Become More Violent
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